Not quite. Pennsylvania is a swing state that leans slightly Republican, and it went red in 2024. Donald Trump carried it by 1.7 points, Republicans flipped a U.S. Senate seat and swept all three statewide row offices, and Republicans control the state Senate. But a Democratic governor holds Harrisburg, and Democrats hold the state House by a single seat. Its Cook PVI rating is R+2.
| Year | Republican | Democrat | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump 50.4% | Harris 48.7% | R +1.7 |
| 2020 | Trump 48.8% | Biden 50.0% | D +1.2 |
| 2016 | Trump 48.2% | Clinton 47.5% | R +0.7 |
| 2012 | Romney 46.6% | Obama 52.0% | D +5.4 |
| 2008 | McCain 44.2% | Obama 54.5% | D +10.3 |
| 2004 | Bush 48.4% | Kerry 50.9% | D +2.5 |
| 2000 | Bush 46.4% | Gore 50.6% | D +4.2 |
Pennsylvania presidential election results, 2000–2024, certified statewide totals.
Is Pennsylvania a red state?
It is the closest thing to a 50/50 state in America, and the trend line since 2008 runs toward Republicans. Trump has won it twice in three tries, the GOP holds the state Senate and one U.S. Senate seat, and Republican voter registration has been closing a gap that was once nearly a million voters. The county you choose matters more here than the statewide label.
Talk to a Pennsylvania agent Compare red states →A swing state with a divided government
Pennsylvania splits power more evenly than almost any state. Governor Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, won in 2022 by nearly 15 points and is favored for re-election in November 2026. Republicans hold the state Senate 27 to 23 and Democrats hold the state House 102 to 101, so almost nothing passes Harrisburg without both parties.
Federal races tilt the other way. Trump carried the state in 2024, Dave McCormick unseated three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey the same night, and Republicans won every statewide row office on the ballot. Outside Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and their inner suburbs, Pennsylvania votes like a solidly red state.
What the split means for policy
Pennsylvania has a flat 3.07% state income tax, one of the lowest rates in the Northeast, and it does not tax Social Security, pensions, or retirement-account withdrawals for retirees, which is why many people leaving New York and New Jersey stop here instead of going all the way south. Property taxes vary widely by school district and are high in the Philadelphia suburbs.
Gun laws are shall-issue with a permit and Republican majorities have passed permitless-carry bills, but Democratic governors have vetoed them, so Pennsylvania has not joined the constitutional-carry states. School choice exists through tax-credit scholarships (EITC and OSTC); a broader voucher program has been blocked by the House majority. These are the policy areas where the 2026 legislative races will matter.
How the last four cycles went
2016
Trump carried Pennsylvania by 0.7 points, the first Republican presidential win here since 1988.
2020
Biden won by 1.2 points, about 80,000 votes, on strength in the Philadelphia suburbs.
2022
Shapiro beat Doug Mastriano by nearly 15 points for governor while John Fetterman won the open Senate seat by about 5.
2024
Trump won by 1.7 points and McCormick ousted Casey by roughly 15,000 votes. Republicans swept the row offices.
The pattern is consistent: Republicans win when turnout is high in the rural "T" and the Pittsburgh exurbs and when the Philadelphia collar counties stay close. Democrats win when Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, and Bucks counties run up large margins. Neither side has managed to move the statewide result more than a couple of points in a presidential year.
What to know before you choose
Pennsylvania is two different states
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with their inner suburbs, hold roughly half the population and vote heavily Democratic. Most of the rest of the state, the region politicians call the "T," votes 65% to 80% Republican. Fulton, Bedford, Potter, Juniata, and Perry counties are among the most Republican counties in the entire Northeast. You can live in a deeply conservative community here, but you have to pick it deliberately.
Statewide races will stay competitive
The 2026 governor's race is rated safe Democratic with Shapiro well ahead of Republican Stacy Garrity in polling, and control of both legislative chambers is on the ballot. If you want a state where statewide outcomes are not in question, Tennessee, Florida, or South Carolina are the safer bets. If you want to stay in the Northeast, keep family within a few hours, and live somewhere that votes Republican by 30 points, that is available across most of Pennsylvania's map.
Pennsylvania's most conservative areas
Lancaster County
Lititz, Manheim, Ephrata, Strasburg. Amish country, strong schools, and about 57% Republican countywide with far higher margins outside Lancaster city.
Cumberland & York counties
Carlisle, Mechanicsburg, Camp Hill, Red Lion, Hanover. Commutable to Harrisburg, growing fast, and reliably Republican.
Butler County
Cranberry Township, Mars, Zelienople. The most conservative fast-growth area near Pittsburgh, about 65% Republican.
Westmoreland County
Greensburg, Murrysville, Latrobe. East of Pittsburgh, affordable, and roughly 64% Republican after decades as a Democratic union county.
Franklin & Adams counties
Chambersburg, Waynesboro, Gettysburg. South-central Pennsylvania near the Maryland line, 70% Republican, and within reach of both Harrisburg and the D.C. exurbs.
The Northern Tier
Wellsboro, Towanda, Coudersport, Mansfield. Tioga, Bradford, and Potter counties are among the most rural and most Republican in the state, with the lowest home prices in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania's political makeup, answered
Is Pennsylvania Republican or Democratic?
Neither, reliably. Trump won it in 2016 and 2024 and Biden won it in 2020, all by under two points. Republicans hold the state Senate and one U.S. Senate seat; Democrats hold the governorship, the state House by one seat, and the other U.S. Senate seat.
Is Pennsylvania getting redder or bluer?
Redder, slowly. Democrats led Republicans in voter registration by more than a million in 2008; that gap has since shrunk to a few hundred thousand. Republicans flipped a U.S. Senate seat and all three row offices in 2024, but Democrats still win comfortably in gubernatorial years.
Which Pennsylvania counties vote Republican?
About 57 of the 67. The entire central and northern part of the state, the Pittsburgh exurbs (Butler, Westmoreland, Washington, Beaver), and south-central Pennsylvania (Lancaster, York, Cumberland, Franklin, Adams) all deliver Republican majorities, many above 65%.
Which Pennsylvania counties vote Democratic?
Philadelphia, Allegheny (Pittsburgh), Montgomery, Delaware, Chester, and Centre (State College), plus Lackawanna (Scranton) and Dauphin (Harrisburg) by smaller margins. Bucks and Erie counties are genuine toss-ups.
Does Pennsylvania have a state income tax?
Yes, a flat 3.07%, which is low by regional standards. Pennsylvania does not tax Social Security, pension income, or retirement-account withdrawals for retirees, one of the most retiree-friendly tax codes in the Northeast. Local earned-income taxes of about 1% apply in most municipalities.
Does Pennsylvania have constitutional carry?
No. Pennsylvania is a shall-issue state, so a License to Carry Firearms is easy to get, but permitless carry has not become law because Democratic governors have vetoed it. Open carry without a permit is legal outside Philadelphia.
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